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Future Of Diesel Engines.
- Thread starter joe_j_barnes
- Start date
Road pricing is an equitable solution as you pay for the amount you are using the roads. The trouble is that it is pretty much impossible to legislate that current vehicles must be retrofitted with a black box. It will be easier on new vehicles from whatever the date is that have to have speed limit technology installed by law.
There are so many challenges that have not been thought through. Even supposing you could supply enough charge points, where is the money going to come from to fund the upgrading of the grid infrastructure, digging up the roads, and installing the chargers? Once the network is in it can become self financing by 'pay as you charge' but it is billions in up front costs and years to achieve
The whole car owning model is likely to be changed by this move to EV's. For city and urban residents there will almost certainly be a rapid migration to a model where you don't own a car. You will pay a company a certain amount per month for a number of hours usage of pool cars like the Boris bike model in London. Huge numbers of people have cars that are only used at weekends, or are only needed a few times a week to go shopping etc. It will also be helped by commuters now only needing to go to the office 2-3 days per week. For the majority of low mileage urban residents this should hugely reduce the annual overhead of car ownership, and will take millions of vehicles of the street
There are so many challenges that have not been thought through. Even supposing you could supply enough charge points, where is the money going to come from to fund the upgrading of the grid infrastructure, digging up the roads, and installing the chargers? Once the network is in it can become self financing by 'pay as you charge' but it is billions in up front costs and years to achieve
The whole car owning model is likely to be changed by this move to EV's. For city and urban residents there will almost certainly be a rapid migration to a model where you don't own a car. You will pay a company a certain amount per month for a number of hours usage of pool cars like the Boris bike model in London. Huge numbers of people have cars that are only used at weekends, or are only needed a few times a week to go shopping etc. It will also be helped by commuters now only needing to go to the office 2-3 days per week. For the majority of low mileage urban residents this should hugely reduce the annual overhead of car ownership, and will take millions of vehicles of the street
Carpe Diem, you might not be around in 8 years time to worry about it.
Having already switched my car from diesel to EV 2 years ago (Model 3), I also thought long and hard about this topic when we decided we wanted to swap out my wife’s petrol car for a VW camper van. I love the EV, the driving experience is fabulous, I have a charging point at home and use it for most journeys, including long road trips up to Scotland etc. The charging infrastructure (Tesla’s anyway) is good enough for those journeys. No issues.
So when looking at VW camper vans I did have a nagging doubt about going diesel. It seemed counter intuitive. However, after much consideration we decided to go for it and have ordered a new VW Transporter 6.1 conversion. It’s the diesel 150bhp DSG engine. My thought process :
- 2030 is 8 and a bit years away. That’s a long time and a lot of camping time for us to enjoy a van bought now.
- After 2030 there will still be a trade in used diesel vehicles.
- Diesel fuel duty will no doubt rise but EV charges will rise too, govt incentives will disappear.
- Diesel will still be widely available for many years after 2030. Commercial vehicles need it and they run our economy. I know that battery tech is moving fast but large trucks going electric is a while away.
- Charging infrastructure on major routes will be fine but not so much in rural areas and campsites. Major issue.
- The emerging EV vans do not appear suitable to convert to campers - the battery size required to move that weight is significant and range is a major issue. The new 6.1 e-transporter has a range of 85 miles, as an example. The new T7 doesn’t look camper ready. And the Buzz is questionable, looks more like a people carrier than something that could be converted to a camper.
- EV vans are at a premium price right now despite the range concerns.
Our strategy was always to have one EV and one ICE vehicle for the next few years so that we are covered for all eventualities. So we maintain that strategy but will swap out the petrol car for a diesel VW camper. Happy with that decision and looking forward to getting the van, probably March/April next year. When this van dies or is uneconomic, it’ll get swapped for an electric version 10+ years from now, if we’re still alive!
So when looking at VW camper vans I did have a nagging doubt about going diesel. It seemed counter intuitive. However, after much consideration we decided to go for it and have ordered a new VW Transporter 6.1 conversion. It’s the diesel 150bhp DSG engine. My thought process :
- 2030 is 8 and a bit years away. That’s a long time and a lot of camping time for us to enjoy a van bought now.
- After 2030 there will still be a trade in used diesel vehicles.
- Diesel fuel duty will no doubt rise but EV charges will rise too, govt incentives will disappear.
- Diesel will still be widely available for many years after 2030. Commercial vehicles need it and they run our economy. I know that battery tech is moving fast but large trucks going electric is a while away.
- Charging infrastructure on major routes will be fine but not so much in rural areas and campsites. Major issue.
- The emerging EV vans do not appear suitable to convert to campers - the battery size required to move that weight is significant and range is a major issue. The new 6.1 e-transporter has a range of 85 miles, as an example. The new T7 doesn’t look camper ready. And the Buzz is questionable, looks more like a people carrier than something that could be converted to a camper.
- EV vans are at a premium price right now despite the range concerns.
Our strategy was always to have one EV and one ICE vehicle for the next few years so that we are covered for all eventualities. So we maintain that strategy but will swap out the petrol car for a diesel VW camper. Happy with that decision and looking forward to getting the van, probably March/April next year. When this van dies or is uneconomic, it’ll get swapped for an electric version 10+ years from now, if we’re still alive!
Surely using existing fuel stations for hydrogen, and people using them like we do now for petrol/diesel is far less infrastructure changes that are required compared to all the changes needed everywhere for EV????
Hydrogen containment and safety requirements are different to petrol and Diesel.
I read an interesting study recently evaluating hydrogen production in N.Africa using excess solar electricity. The energy consumed to liquify or transport through pipelines is much higher than natural gas. I’m sure we’ll get there but it won’t be a case of Tesco changing the stickers on the pumps.
Don't forget UK oil reserves are over 20 billion barrels XD, that's enough oil to continue oil production for the next twenty years
I used to work in oil exploration, there are massive fields being found on a regular basis. Many are in very deep water, target depths are below the current drilling capabilities and / or not currently economical. Many are in countries with zero environmental controls, if the general population could see what our multi-national oil companies are allowing there would be an outcry.
Drilling depth records are being broken at a rapid rate, sub-sea production technology rivals the space industry.
It costs mega$, how much are people able to pay at the pump?
As I see it, you can either buy a Diesel van now and enjoy it for the next 10-15 years minimum. Or try to second guess the future & miss out. Diesel is at the zenith of its development, it’s doubtful if the diesel/ICE engine will get any better than it is now, all the development & research is going into alternatives. There’s no saying that EVs will be the future, just think about CDs/DVDs/VHS/Betamax these are all technologies that were going to be “the future”. Personally I think EVs will be a flash in the pan, they will be the Betamax of vehicles. There are difficulties that will be very hard to overcome with infrastructure & battery supply. Something else will come along & replace them in my lifetime.
Live for today, but just keep an eye on tomorrow.
Live for today, but just keep an eye on tomorrow.
My approach to this is that I accept that the van I’ve just bought will be completely worthless in 10 years, but that’s fine, I’ll have had 10 years enjoyment out of it. The other main concern is that the tax on petrol and diesel will go up exponentially more than inflation over the next decade in order to make EVs seem more cost effective, and this will mean trips will be fewer and reserved for high days and holidays.
Long term I believe the future will entail far less personal transport and much more mass transit, along with people working and spending their time much closer to home, removing a lot of the need to travel for work.
Or Putin or whatever loony is in the white house will press the button and we won’t need to worry ; )
Long term I believe the future will entail far less personal transport and much more mass transit, along with people working and spending their time much closer to home, removing a lot of the need to travel for work.
Or Putin or whatever loony is in the white house will press the button and we won’t need to worry ; )
Like others I expect that using dirty diesel will in the future be economically unviable, so like environmental campaigner and Xtinction Rebellion member Cameron Ford, I'm going to keep using mine while I can.
www.dailymail.co.uk
However, I won't be driving my diesel van around Europe and taking long haul flights to Canada whilst lecturing others about their carbon footprint.
M25 eco protest ringleader went on TWO epic globetrotting road trips
Cameron Ford, 31, from Cambridgeshire, has taken part in repeated blockades of the M25 to highlight climate disaster. But he helped contribute to global warming with trips to Canada and Europe
Thanks this helps back up my decision to order a diesel 6.1 for same reasons. Appreciate you spending the time to write this. Enjoy the van (if/when it arrives!)
Glad you found my thought process useful. It’s not an easy decision and it’s a lot of money, but I think that the current reality, despite the massive research and spending on finding alternatives, is that if you want to use a campervan any time in the next 5-10 years you are going to default to a fossil fuel powered vehicle as the only viable option for the reasons noted. I try to do my bit to reduce emissions in other ways ie. other vehicle is an EV, selecting energy suppliers that provide electricity based on 100% renewables, all gas carbon offset etc. (Octopus) So I’m doing my bit and do not feel remotely guilty about buying and enjoying a diesel campervan.
I suppose I could have bought a used 6.1 to reduce the financial commitment but given current supply/demand I’m not sure that would have saved me much cash at all, if any, hence going for a shiny new one that can be specified exactly as we want it.
Welcome to the long waiting list
Pootling down the road in my mucky, filthy, polluting California with my wife, two boys and two dogs in the back, dragging a caravan on the back…..Shoving the dogs in kennels or to grandma, taking a taxi to/from the airport and guaranteeing some sunshine abroad….which does more environmental damage?!!
On the other hand, it “might” be more economical to have a plane with 150 pax onboard flying from London to Aberdeen, than 150 cars doing the same journey, dunno
I've bought a van, so it's classed as a commercial. In 8 years time commercial vehicles won't all be on electricity and diesel will be available.
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