T6 value forecast post Ford era - newbie Q

[dilbu]

Hi everyone - Newbie here considering making the jump to buying a T6 so please be gentle! I had an initial question/discussion point I wanted to post that I hoped so kind folks could help me out with. I recently sold a citroen relay campervan due to the arrival of a little girl and am wanting to get a more family friendly/practical van and the T6 is an obvious option. Luckily I have the funds to buy cash (to an extent) but there's no way around the fact that they aren't cheap. My main concern is that I've only just learned about the upcoming ford/transporter merger (which i'm super suprised about and im sure has been discussed to death already) but I'm thinking this could go two ways: prices of t6's fall as they are all of a sudden an old shape with old tech, or they hold their price as they're the last of the authentic vw breed. Given the money I'll be forking out I really hoped to get some thoughts from folks on which of the two is likely to be in your opinion. I'm yet to navigate what kind of model I'd be getting, becase frankly I find the variations in custom options confusing, especially how much they impact price. But it's likely I'd be doing for a kombi, a max of 3 years old. I'd probably be doing some minor customisations in time such as carpet lining/adding led's just to make it a more practical day van so perhaps this could affect retained value.

Really would appreciate the feedback - thanks so much!

 

[Bav]

My take is that, as the last of the true Transporters, T6s and T6.1s will hold their value well.

This may be wishful thinking on my part, but the introduction of new Transporter generations hasn't negatively impacted the residuals of previous generations (have you seen the prices of Splitties and Bay Windows!! ) whereas the move to a Ford wet-belt engine is likely to deter a lot of would-be buyers.

 

[Lubrown]

Hi everyone - Newbie here considering making the jump to buying a T6 so please be gentle! I had an initial question/discussion point I wanted to post that I hoped so kind folks could help me out with. I recently sold a citroen relay campervan due to the arrival of a little girl and am wanting to get a more family friendly/practical van and the T6 is an obvious option. Luckily I have the funds to buy cash (to an extent) but there's no way around the fact that they aren't cheap. My main concern is that I've only just learned about the upcoming ford/transporter merger (which i'm super suprised about and im sure has been discussed to death already) but I'm thinking this could go two ways: prices of t6's fall as they are all of a sudden an old shape with old tech, or they hold their price as they're the last of the authentic vw breed. Given the money I'll be forking out I really hoped to get some thoughts from folks on which of the two is likely to be in your opinion. I'm yet to navigate what kind of model I'd be getting, becase frankly I find the variations in custom options confusing, especially how much they impact price. But it's likely I'd be doing for a kombi, a max of 3 years old. I'd probably be doing some minor customisations in time such as carpet lining/adding led's just to make it a more practical day van so perhaps this could affect retained value.

Really would appreciate the feedback - thanks so much!

I think there is a lot of brand loyalty. Transporters aren’t perfect but they have always had a premium price which I assume is down to loyal customers and the image that gives. VW have always been that way too - my first vehicles were a 1971 beetle and a 1979 T2… and other owners always waved and we went to shows and have always had fun and friendship along the way. You don’t get that with Transits or say a Mercedes Vito even though they are, if I’m being honest, better in some areas (no vehicle is perfect). VW owners focus on Transits wet belt as a coping strategy for the DMF, suspension and paying over the odds for a commercial vehicle. I dare say transit owners focus on those VW issues if they love their transit. I’ve had a few Fords - always been comfortable and reliable.
I don’t see that VW family feeling changing anytime soon though and I think there will be a strong following (for Transporters at least) for a while to come.
What I would say is test drive different vans and make sure you’re happy. Get one that works for you and your family. The VW badge and all that I mentioned above is great but if a different van is better in areas important to you and is cheaper then you need to think hard. I’ve had a VW of some kind for the last thirty odd years but next time I change vehicles I’ll have less pull towards VW as the quality has been dropping. My Transporter has a crap ride despite spending a small fortune trying to improve it. It’s noisy and it needed really expensive work at 33k miles. Having said that I love the VW scene so I’ll probably still end up with another one, although the Merc Vitos are looking very tempting… and I could still wave at transporters even if they look at me gone out

 

[TallPaul_S]

I think in the short term, the new Ford/VW van is at best a complete unknown when it comes to reliability or issues, or at worst, an unreliable pig of a ford with a VW badge.

So, short term (next year) I don't see values of the T6/6.1 being affected by the new one, if anything it might help them a bit as people try and buy a known van in one of the last T6.1's rather than a possible wet fish.

Long term, if the new van is actually good, then the old values will just track normally. If it's bad then values will hold up better.

In short, don't worry about future values - just buy what you want. You probably won't be able to buy a new transporter for a year so if you want to buy soon then you don't have much choice.

 

[cgtmiles]

Right, new transporters are currently not available to order so this must be keeping t6/6.1 values higher, mine is basically worth what I bought it for nearly 5 years ago but even when they start selling the transhit and prices drop more it will still be a better buy than must other vehicles

 

[roadtripper]

Vehicles are not investments (baring the edge case of rare ones) so the value is only going to go down in the long term, and owning one is going to cost you money.

The point of owning a vehicle is to do something with it and enjoy it. If you're spending a lot of money the question you need to ask yourself is in the worst case can I sell it for enough to pay off any finance I took to buy it.

Even if you could predict trends next year there may be another pandemic and either your van value will not be the biggest thing on your mind or the values will shoot up. Likewise you could be unlucky and get one of the ones that suffers EGR and Turbo failure and you're looking at a new engine and it's value tanks.

Personally I'm expecting a bit of a Landrover Defender type effect which is good for values and bad for theft, though I think that's mostly in, for want of a better term, the van life sector. Even there there are probably enough ex commercial vans of the T6.1 generation for the next 5 years or so that nothing much may happen. And who knows this might not be the last authentic VW camper, the Buzz caries a lot of the "Camper DNA" in its styling or in 5 years time it may turn out the VW is leading the replacement for the T7 instead of Ford.

If you're stretching yourself to buy the base van than have a good think. Converting is not cheap, even if you do most of the work, neither is insuring the resulting non standard van and running a Transporter takes more money than you anticipate (and I come from decades of running high end Swedish cars)

Buy it because you enjoy it and because of what you can do with it and where you can go and who you take with you. Worry about the money only as far as making sure you don't overstretch yourself and in an emergency you can get back the value you need, not the value you want.

 

[DXX]

Last in the production line normally means will hold it’s value.
Climate change inaction / global aggression could make running a thirsty ICE a thing of the past.
It’s an unpredictable world, not even worth guessing IMO.

 

[dilbu]

My take is that, as the last of the true Transporters, T6s and T6.1s will hold their value well.

This may be wishful thinking on my part, but the introduction of new Transporter generations hasn't negatively impacted the residuals of previous generations (have you seen the prices of Splitties and Bay Windows!! ) whereas the move to a Ford wet-belt engine is likely to deter a lot of would-be buyers.

Thanks - yeah I tend to lead this way too although I know diddly squat really.

 

[dilbu]

I think in the short term, the new Ford/VW van is at best a complete unknown when it comes to reliability or issues, or at worst, an unreliable pig of a ford with a VW badge.

So, short term (next year) I don't see values of the T6/6.1 being affected by the new one, if anything it might help them a bit as people try and buy a known van in one of the last T6.1's rather than a possible wet fish.

Long term, if the new van is actually good, then the old values will just track normally. If it's bad then values will hold up better.

In short, don't worry about future values - just buy what you want. You probably won't be able to buy a new transporter for a year so if you want to buy soon then you don't have much choice.

That's true; even if things shift I failed to consider it would be a progressive thing.

 

[dilbu]

Vehicles are not investments (baring the edge case of rare ones) so the value is only going to go down in the long term, and owning one is going to cost you money.

The point of owning a vehicle is to do something with it and enjoy it. If you're spending a lot of money the question you need to ask yourself is in the worst case can I sell it for enough to pay off any finance I took to buy it.

Even if you could predict trends next year there may be another pandemic and either your van value will not be the biggest thing on your mind or the values will shoot up. Likewise you could be unlucky and get one of the ones that suffers EGR and Turbo failure and you're looking at a new engine and it's value tanks.

Personally I'm expecting a bit of a Landrover Defender type effect which is good for values and bad for theft, though I think that's mostly in, for want of a better term, the van life sector. Even there there are probably enough ex commercial vans of the T6.1 generation for the next 5 years or so that nothing much may happen. And who knows this might not be the last authentic VW camper, the Buzz caries a lot of the "Camper DNA" in its styling or in 5 years time it may turn out the VW is leading the replacement for the T7 instead of Ford.

If you're stretching yourself to buy the base van than have a good think. Converting is not cheap, even if you do most of the work, neither is insuring the resulting non standard van and running a Transporter takes more money than you anticipate (and I come from decades of running high end Swedish cars)

Buy it because you enjoy it and because of what you can do with it and where you can go and who you take with you. Worry about the money only as far as making sure you don't overstretch yourself and in an emergency you can get back the value you need, not the value you want.

Thanks, sound advice here. Thankfully we wouldn't be stretching ourselves but it's still a lot of money to most people and would hate to see the value plummet. As I'd be so new to the transporter world I was worried i'd be a guy that people said.. 'so you bought a T6 just before they changed?'

 

[DaveD]

If we knew where prices were heading we'd all be posting about the Mk2 Ford Escort Mexico's sitting in our sheds!

 

[Chippie1]

If we knew where prices were heading we'd all be posting about the Mk2 Ford Escort Mexico's sitting in our sheds!

Ooh lovely motor!!
Just seen a post on a car I had stolen off me in the early 2000’s Vauxhall nova gti selling for £25,000 I paid £500

 

[DXX]

Ooh lovely motor!!
Just seen a post on a car I had stolen off me in the early 2000’s Vauxhall nova gti selling for £25,000 I paid £500

I’d happily pay 25k not to own a Vauxhall any day. A perverse misuse of steel IMO

 

[cgtmiles]

Ooh lovely motor!!
Just seen a post on a car I had stolen off me in the early 2000’s Vauxhall nova gti selling for £25,000 I paid £500

Did they do a gti? They did a GSE and a gte but I don’t remember a nova gti

 

[Stay Frosty]

Lotus Carlton, you can't knock that one.

 

[Chippie1]

Did they do a gti? They did a GSE and a gte but I don’t remember a nova gti

Fat fingers typing Yes GTE

 

[Chippie1]

I’d happily pay 25k not to own a Vauxhall any day. A perverse misuse of steel IMO

I’m not a Vauxhall fan but I was the kiddy in my teens with a gte

 

[cgtmiles]

I’d happily pay 25k not to own a Vauxhall any day. A perverse misuse of steel IMO

We have had a few Vauxhalls and to be fair they have all lasted for ages.

Mainly because no bugger wanted to drive them

 

[Lubrown]

This talk of Vauxhalls is making me think of an old comedy sketch about a Corsa (or was it Nova?) limited edition where, the line was, “they only made one million”.
Can’t remember if it was from Griff and Jones or Fry and Laurie? It was the female character who also said “there’s a little man in our village who runs up my skirts”.
Tell me I wasn’t dreaming it all? Can’t find a video clip anywhere.

 

[Stay Frosty]

Currently got a 68 plate Astra so not the latest model with the vizor styling, which I like but the last of the Focus shape.
Thing is it's anonymous looking but is light, has fully independent rear suspension with Watts linkage so not just a beam on trailing arms and the 1.6 petrol turbo engine with 200 hp and 6 speed manual meaning it will get to 60 quicker than many supposedly sporty cars and can stay in front way past the period when sanity returns.
Those nondescript looks and cheap replacement parts though mean that the insurance is cheap, it's less likely to get stolen and it's cheaper secondhand in the first place, a same year Polo GTi was nearly £6k dearer when I got the Astra 18 months ago so spent the rest on a hair transplant and Turkey teeth.
Vauxhall or Stellantis with plants in this country is possibly the only car manufacturer still in with a chance against the onslaught of cheap vehicles coming this way from China too.