Future Of Diesel Engines.

[Loopdreams]

I'd be willing to bet a hefty sum that hydrogen won't be the fuel of the future except for certain use cases like aviation and perhaps HGVs, things like that. For cars etc. batteries and motors are improving all the time, are way simpler and don't need such massive infrastructure changes.

 

[Skyliner33]

I'd be willing to bet a hefty sum that hydrogen won't be the fuel of the future except for certain use cases like aviation and perhaps HGVs, things like that. For cars etc. batteries and motors are improving all the time, are way simpler and don't need such massive infrastructure changes.

I would argue the opposite. For one, how will we get around the fact that there are not enough rare earth metals on the planet to produce enough batteries for all the cars that there are now?

 

[t0mb0]

I would argue the opposite. For one, how will we get around the fact that there are not enough rare earth metals on the planet to produce enough batteries for all the cars that there are now?

A brief read around suggests this just isn't true. The main elements used in the batteries are lithium and cobalt and neither are actually particularly rare. Some rare earth metals are used in the manufacture of some electric cars, but it doesn't look as the the usage is particularly higher than current ICE cars? It seems most of the stories out there pushing this narrative originate from manufacturers of technologies which compete with components which do use some rare earth metals.

 

[Loopdreams]

Yeah, there's an lot of FUD that gets bandied about when it comes to EVs.

 

[Mud Digger]

as the others have said get one and enjoy it live life for today and not for tomorrow... its to short ... and your kids might not want a old camper, thats your dream not theirs and if all their mates are fast and furious by then they wont want it ...

There might be an alternative fuel by then ... and compensation from the Government for conversion ... but how long would that take, all the garages to convert every car garages are not big enough to convert millions of cars, vans and trucks they just about cope now with break downs and servicing. How are blocks of flats and streets going to have plug in points.. people unplugging a car to plug theirs in will be wars ...

Think More what your going to do in your van will set what age of the one to buy.

or get a newer one if your driving into city's... keeping electric vehicles for the city's

electric cars wont work for every one that travels for work with out a guaranteed plug at each end of their journey. ... a service engineer a pop to Cambridge then have a break down in Brighton

they are are still selling petrol and diesel vehicles now.. to scrap in 8 years time...

Aviation will be electric there is a huge amount on electric planes some already in use

 

[Captain Mainwaring]

There are something like 35m cars and 3m vans on UK roads currently. As everyone knows there are huge supply issues effecting delivery of new vehicles so it will probably be at least 2 years before new vehicle deliveries are back to pre-pandemic levels of 2-3m per year. At that rate it will be 10 years from now before even half the current ICE cars and vans are replaced by electric vehicles.

The infrastructure of fuel supply, servicing, parts supply etc for ICE vehicles will therefore still be very active right through the 2030's. Things like conversion to hydrogen, more environmentally acceptable fuels, or fuel cells should keep the current stock going for a long time. There is a huge environmental impact on building new vehicles, even if they are battery powered, so there will be plenty of motivation for this to happen

One other issue aside from the vehicles themselves is the electricity supply. It is going to take decades for UK power generation to meet the needs of charging all those batteries, and for the National Grid to provide the infrastructure to deliver the power to all the charging points

 

[Loopdreams]

One other issue aside from the vehicles themselves is the electricity supply. It is going to take decades for UK power generation to meet the needs of charging all those batteries, and for the National Grid to provide the infrastructure to deliver the power to all the charging points

Not so much, most people charge will end up charging their cars at night where they live and as we move to more renewable power this actually ends up pretty handy. It's a fairly small minority of car journeys that require charging en route. There really aren't any huge problems to solve apart from actually getting on with it.

 

[JasonW]

Yes, even if they 'just get on with it' it'll be a good 20 years... thats installing 5000 electric charging points every day to accommodate the 45 million vehicles on the road...

On top of that we need charging points covering at least 50% of car spaces at supermarkets, large stores, service stations, ncps etc etc. So a few more million..

2030...is optimistic... I'd say 2050 is nearer the mark and by then it might look like an outdated technology.

 

[Loopdreams]

I think you are overestimating by an entire order of magnitude the numbers of dedicated charge points that will be needed. With the realistic range provided by current EVs then a car doing average mileage would need to be on charge for about an hour a week at a rapid charger* or longer if charged more slowly at home say and in that case you actually don't need to install anything at all, you can just use a three pin plug. We definitely don't need 5000 charging points every day until we have 45 million of them or "charging points covering at least 50% of car spaces at supermarkets, large stores, service stations, ncps etc etc"?

*based on actual modest current cars and ignoring the fact that range is increasing and charge times are getting faster.

 

[Mud Digger]

@Loopdeams hmm i take it you have a drive way at your house with off road parking and can charge you battery when you get home i live on a block of flats estate there's 24 bays for 120 flats 4 bays have 2nd cars permanently left parked in bays its lucky if you get a bay each night or its on the yellow lines if you don't get one. i don't think the service industry is a minority look at the M25 through the day i was an air con engineer for 25 years sometimes filling up every other day
for more renewable energy is nuclear a minority of people don't like wind farms and they only work when its windy.

have you seen the currant needed to fast charge a car in 3 hours.......

 

[Loopdreams]

@Loopdeams hmm i take it you have a drive way at your house with off road parking and can charge you battery when you get home i live on a block of flats estate there's 24 bays for 120 flats 4 bays have 2nd cars permanently left parked in bays its lucky if you get a bay each night or its on the yellow lines if you don't get one. i don't think the service industry is a minority look at the M25 through the day i was an air con engineer for 25 years sometimes filling up every other day
for more renewable energy is nuclear a minority of people don't like wind farms and they only work when its windy.

have you seen the currant needed to fast charge a car in 3 hours.......

Yeah car parks for flats etc. is where the effort needs to go, it will happen though because it has to. Also ranges will increase as batteries get bigger and cheaper. Compared to the problems we face by doing nothing these issues and their solutions are utterly trivial.

And for the record I'm pro nuclear as well as everything else that doesn't involve burning fossil fuels, we need everything we can get at the moment. But what we definitely can't do is just carry on as we are. The price of progress won't be zero, though, it never is.

 

[Murdoch]

Er what about terrace house on streets …….where parking in nigh on impossible

 

[Loopdreams]

Er what about terrace house on streets …….where parking in nigh on impossible

They'll probably end up having to charge it somewhere else, perhaps using some of the superfast charge stations that will start springing up in increasing numbers. Much the same way that you can't fill up with petrol there either. Unless councils start putting in some sort of on street charge points everywhere, that may or may not happen eventually, I don't know.

 

[Gavinda]

Batteries are great for phones and laptops but I just think they're an imperfect solution for vehicles, too heavy, too complicated, too many things need digging out of the ground to make them surely we're better off focusing on renewable electricity generation and using this to produce hydrogen to use in fuel cell vehicles.

 

[Murdoch]

They'll probably end up having to charge it somewhere else,

Unless councils start putting in some sort of on street charge points everywhere, that may or may not happen eventually, I don't know.

and there we have it, sod the people who don’t have off street parking

from what I see, its only well off people buying or leasing EV’s and they are saving a lot of fuel duty ….. that they should be paying

 

[Loopdreams]

Batteries are great for phones and laptops but I just think they're an imperfect solution for vehicles, too heavy, too complicated, too many things need digging out of the ground to make them surely we're better off focusing on renewable electricity generation and using this to produce hydrogen to use in fuel cell vehicles.

Problem being you're going to need pretty much twice as much renewable energy to do that in order to account for all the losses.

 

[Loopdreams]

and there we have it, sod the people who don’t have off street parking

from what I see, its only well off people buying or leasing EV’s and they are saving a lot of fuel duty ….. that they should be paying

I don't know how you read that from what I wrote. I'm saying that they'll have to charge them somewhere else and it'll barely be any more inconvenient than filling up with fuel. Then to make the costs equitable probably have to look at something like road pricing rather than fuel duty and ensure through policies or subsidies that charging stations are inline with domestic charging when it comes to costs. It's hardly beyond the wit of mankind. What's the alternative?

 

[JasonW]

DEVC

But our creaky infrastructure is generation's away from it..

 

[TrevorK]

Batteries are great for phones and laptops but I just think they're an imperfect solution for vehicles, too heavy, too complicated, too many things need digging out of the ground to make them surely we're better off focusing on renewable electricity generation and using this to produce hydrogen to use in fuel cell vehicles.

Powering your next vehicle with thousands of rechargeable AA batteries wired together does not sound sustainable or cutting edge.

 

[DXX]

If we get this one wrong, how we charge a battery will seem very very trivial.
If we can’t grow food or go outside because it’s too hot for humans to survive there will be many ‘what ifs’.
The cynic in me says the current energy supply crisis might have be engineered to emphasis the importance of domestic oil and gas production just before the Climate Summit in Glasgow. Big Oil has had successive governments by the balls for along time and it won’t be ending soon.